The Cavs are much worse than last year : Why ?

A case study into a very unexpected dip in performances

In the 2024-25 season, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 64 of their 82 games.
This season, they are starting 17-16, a 42-win pace.

What happened ? What’s the reason for such a bad start, and most importantly can they turn it around in 2026 ?

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There’s one aspect of the game I always check when analyzing team performances, especially when talking about less than whole season spans :

1 - Shooting luck

The #1 variable you should check to assess team performances, especially this early in the season, is shooting numbers (especially from 3). Is the team particularly hot/cold from long range ? Are they getting torched from 3 by their opponents ?

Before seeing this year’s numbers for the Cavs, here are the numbers from last season :

38.3% from 3, 35.9% for their opponents. Elite numbers for an Elite season.

But looking at these, you now wonder what’s what for this season. Well, here are the 25-26 numbers as of Dec 28th :

Down to 34.9% on their 3s and 37.8% for their opponents !

Not so great, is it ?

This is quite frankly the biggest contribution to the Cavs’ poor early results. Their 3s aren’t falling, and their opponents are hitting their shots.

But we can’t stop there.

2 - Offensive Rating impact

This 3P drought is hurting the Cavs’ offensive rating like crazy :

Down from #1 in 24-25 to #9 this season. This side of the court is the one all their problems come from.

Let’s take a look at their 3P numbers in detail to see if we can find something more specific to explain their difficulties.

3 - 3P Breakdown

The Cavs are shooting more contested shots this year (2 more, 1 less open 3), and their percentages are lower, even on open ones.

Same for corner 3s. Their ball movement is worse, their attaining the corners 1 less time per game, and are shooting Above the Break 3s way more (+3 a game is a lot).k35% from the corners is very poor, we’ll see who’s at fault later. But before, let’s have a look at the top 10 in 3P volume for both years.

Mitchell and Garland are keeping similar volumes and efficiency, this dip doesn’t seem to come from their end (although Garland has been hurt some games).

Merill and Tyson are holding their own too. 43+% on 12+ attempts combined, this is a great source of scoring for role players !

No, the problem likely comes from the Ty Jerome replacement (Lonzo), and a little dip in efficiency from DeAndre Hunter (41% → 31% on 6 a game).

But I’d be willing to bet these are bound to come back to the mean.

Here’s the breakdown for Open 3s and Corner 3s for both years :

6% less on open 3s for Hunter, 8% less for Wade. 6% less for the latter on Corner 3s.

This is where most of the shooting slump comes from.

Conclusion

Based on the underlying numbers, I think the Cavs have little to worry about.

Their roster is still qualitative, and if their star players can stay clear of injuries, they can very well challenge for an NBA Finals spot.

Basketball is a precision game. Probability laws say random events with X% chance of success have enough variance to see weird things happen.

I believe this 25-26 start for the Cavs is just that, a weird statistical event. I hope the conclusions drawn from the FO and the fans aren’t too drastic, cause I really believe patience is the key.

What do you think ? Tell me in the comments, do you see the Cavs challenge the Knicks and the Pistons at the top of the Eastern Conference by May ?